Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-12-28 1.095990 1.154691 1.215417 1.283053 1.356429 1.433791 1.521734
2026-01-04 0.998912 1.081448 1.170387 1.273831 1.391448 1.521753 1.678049
2026-01-11 0.948476 1.046654 1.155560 1.286282 1.440218 1.617365 1.839068
2026-01-18 0.904359 1.012881 1.136027 1.287602 1.471253 1.689379 1.972428
2026-01-25 0.880056 0.998848 1.136438 1.309739 1.525367 1.789275 2.143989
2026-02-01 0.835649 0.957788 1.101423 1.285496 1.519214 1.811993 2.216601
2026-02-08 0.791603 0.914607 1.061077 1.251502 1.497431 1.811662 2.256476
2026-02-15 0.763150 0.888852 1.040432 1.240401 1.503209 1.845989 2.343684
2026-02-22 0.742909 0.872101 1.029828 1.240940 1.523286 1.899310 2.459724
2026-03-01 0.716039 0.845840 1.005885 1.222616 1.516637 1.914996 2.521812
2026-03-08 0.685163 0.813358 0.972660 1.190393 1.489156 1.899590 2.536053
2026-03-15 0.666896 0.796262 0.958503 1.182703 1.494551 1.930185 2.620594
2026-03-22 0.655950 0.788809 0.957341 1.193454 1.527561 2.004353 2.781618
2026-03-29 0.637917 0.771567 0.942677 1.185108 1.533051 2.038512 2.882471
2026-04-05 0.628669 0.765410 0.942341 1.196291 1.566829 2.116531 3.061035
2026-04-12 0.616329 0.754655 0.935281 1.197476 1.585628 2.172302 3.206760
2026-04-19 0.611517 0.753697 0.941341 1.217344 1.632997 2.275412 3.444408
2026-04-26 0.592402 0.732834 0.919282 1.195585 1.615778 2.273622 3.492977
2026-05-03 0.571240 0.708641 0.891901 1.165038 1.583557 2.245350 3.489868
2026-05-10 0.558081 0.695031 0.878858 1.155054 1.582777 2.268782 3.585858
2026-05-17 0.549052 0.686823 0.873093 1.155539 1.598309 2.320208 3.740362
2026-05-24 0.534957 0.671245 0.856437 1.139049 1.585884 2.322918 3.798339
2026-05-31 0.517454 0.650553 0.831996 1.110021 1.552033 2.286614 3.773962